all this is sort of art based on science. it is a little bit of both. , first of all, jennifer duffy, our senate or governor, editor. she has been doing this since 1988. i have been doing it since 1984. have seen every seat come out. what we hear from strategist, what we have from people was talked in the state, what the numbers look like. what the opposition looks like. restart a for the general assessment and these things evolve over the course of an election cycle. mcconnell oftch kentucky. the senate republican leader and the democratic side mark dreier who is seeking reelection. then you have to currently democratic seats that are leaning republican in montana and west virginia. a number of lean democratic seats held by democrats baggage another in indiana, mary landrieu in indiana. carl levin is retiring in michigan and kay hagan who is seeking reelection in north carolina. the way i start offending it up seatsre are 34 democratic that are not up this time. 31 republican. then thereabouts seven gimme putts for democrats